UNFCCC Executive Secretary at OPEC meeting

The Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Christiana Figueres, gave a speech at the 5th OPEC International Seminar, held at Vienna in June 2012.

I must say this was a brilliant move. Beginning by reassuring Oil Producing Countries that the demand for oil will continue to increase even with successful climate change mitigation policies in place, she proceeded to point out a strategic approach that represents a win-win solution for both OPEC and the fight against climate change:

“Our aim should be an economic system that strategically directs oil toward the highest margin specialty markets, generating the most amount of economic benefit for each barrel of oil’s emissions.”

Higher margins mean higher profits for oil producing countries. Although this was not voiced, higher oil prices are also vital to anticipate the arrival of a low-carbon future. Cheap oil has been undermining and delaying the further technological development and large scale deployment of alternative energy sources and energy carriers, such as solar energy and hydrogen, respectively.     

Christiana Figueres also took the opportunity to point that the optimization of the internal use of energy in Oil Producing Countries, through the implementation of energy efficiency measures, are a way to increase the availability of oil and gas for export.

Displaying a far-sighted vision, the UN Climate Change Conference at the end of 2012 will be held for the first time ever in the Gulf region, in Qatar.


Adapted from: UNFCCC, 2012.

Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage

The objective of the European Industrial Initiative (EII) on Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage (CCS) is to contribute to the development of the technology that will enable the application of CCS in all carbon intensive industrial sectors and to ensure its competitive cost for deployment by 2020-2025. The operational objectives of this EII include the final Investment decisions for up to 12 CCS demonstration projects should be taken by 2015, as well as a programme of knowledge-sharing between projects (https://www.ccsnetwork.eu).

All the main technology routes for carbon capture, post combustion, pre-combustion and oxyfuel, are to have pilot projects for demonstration. These pilot projects should improve the capture processes by reducing the cost of technology and the loss of efficiency. They should also contribute to improve the integration of capture technologies into industrial installations, and to increase the purity of the CO2 stream as required to manage risks in the transport and storage infrastructures.

The transport concepts should be further developed to increase operational reliability and safety, both through pipeline and ship. The pilot projects should also contribute to launch the core of a trans-European CO2 network.

Storage monitoring technologies and reporting procedures shall be validated and a consistent methodology for classification of storage reserves/capacity should be established. Finally, this industrial initiative should also evaluate the storage potential within the territory of the European Union, namely in deep saline aquifers, depleted oil and gas fields and “unmineable” coal layers. These sites and CO2 emission sources will be mapped out to enable the identification of potential pipeline trajectories connecting sources and sinks.

The operating costs of CCS will greatly depend on the price of coal and of Emission Unit Allowances under the European Emissions Trade Scheme. As an ending note, let us refer that one of the outcomes of the Durban conference of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was the inclusion of projects for carbon dioxide capture and storage in geological formations as eligible Clean Development Mechanism activities – a program which provides financial support for developing countries, under the Kyoto Protocol for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.

Sources:

- CCS EII Implementation Plan 2010-2012, Zero Emissions Platform

- UNFCCC

Pan-European power grid

The European Union's targets to increase the share of renewable energy to 20% by 2020, and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 80% below 1990 levels by 2050, pose a major challenge to the power grid throughout Europe. The existing electricity grid is mostly based on technology which was developed more than 30 years ago, for one-way energy flows from large production plants to the consumer.

Unlike the conventional power plants, which enable full control of the production of energy, the sources of renewable energy have natural variability, particularly wind and solar energy, but also hydraulic energy, which are all dependent upon weather conditions. Additionally, there is also a major paradigm shift as we move from a highly centralized network to decentralized production, where the consumption points can also inject electricity into the power grid, through micro and mini-production of electricity.

To accommodate the massive deployment of renewable and decentralized energy sources, a stronger and smarter electricity grid is required, with significant benefits deriving from the creation of a single interconnected grid throughout Europe in terms of energy security and affordably.

On the supply side, the wide geographic integration cancels-out part of the local variability of renewable energy sources and reduces the need and level of curtailment of the conventional power plants to avoid temporary surplus in electricity production. “The increase in transmission capacity and crossborder coordination of market operations will also allow sharing of reserve capacity between regions reducing total reserve requirements by approximately 40%, avoiding significant redundant investment.” (ROADMAP 2050 - Practical guide to a prosperous, low carbon Europe). On the demand-side, the demand curves are also softened.

Changes in the European electrical network infrastructure and operation are critical to the delivery of the decarbonization of the power sector and of the economy.

Considering the importance of the electricity networks to a low-carbon Europe, the Strategic Energy Technology Plan includes the European Electricity Grid Initiative (EEGI) in coordination and cooperation with other initiatives, namely photovoltaics, concentrated solar power, and wind energy.

The EEGI is based on a 9-year European research program for development and demonstration, with focus on system innovation rather than on technology innovation. It addresses the challenge of integrating new technologies under real life working conditions, including new intermittent renewable resources at the different voltage levels, recharging infrastructure for electric vehicles and active demand from end users. The initiative includes the smart grid model (functionalities necessary), transmission, distribution and the coordination of the different networks.

Besides contributing to the future coordinated planning and operation of the European Electricity Network, EEGI will also contribute to the study of new market rules.

Sources:

- ROADMAP 2050 - Practical guide to a prosperous, low carbon Europe, European Climate Foundation;

- The European Electricity Grid Initiative (EEGI) Roadmap 2010-18 and Implementation Plan 2010-12

Solar Thermal Electricity, a.k.a. Concentrated Solar Power

Solar thermal power has a significant advantage over other renewable sectors: it mimics more accurately the electricity demand curve. There is a large potential to seize this energy resource in Southern Europe and the Union’s neighbour countries of the Mediterranean. The installed capacity in Europe is expected to reach 2 GW by 2012 and around 30 GW by 2020. A much larger expression could be achieved in the long-term by involving the North Africa countries.

According to ESTELA, the European Solar Thermal Electricity Association, the European Industry is the world leader in this sector. Spain in particular has been having a leading role, building on encouraging feed-in tariffs established by the Government. The number of Spanish plants which are operating or under construction is presented in the following table.

Table 1 - Concentrated Solar Power plants in Spain

Authorized plants in Spain	Number of plants	MW
Operating or in commissioning in 2009	8	332
Completion 2010	11	548
Completion 2011	11	516
Completion 2012	11	500
Completion 2013	15	443
Total 2010-2013	48	2007

The European Commission, in its Technology Roadmap for the period 2010-2020, established several objectives for Solar Thermal Electricity, also known as Concentrated Solar Power. The main objective set forward is the reduction of the generation, operation and maintenance costs, through measures such as the improvement of the system conversion efficiency, the improvement of the reliability and efficiency of individual components, and the development of advanced plant monitoring and control technologies.

The second most important objective is to develop and improve thermal energy storage, as well as hybridization of the power plants with natural gas or even biomass, in an effort to increase the operational flexibility and energy dispachability of Concentrated Solar Power.

Environmental objectives have also been set. The need to reduce the water-use footprint associated with the cooling water consumption has also been specifically included. Optimization of land use through new and innovative designs would also contribute to reduce the ecological footprint.

In this context, ESTELA developed the Implementation Plan for 2010-2013 of the Solar Thermal Electricity European Industrial Initiative, included in the framework of the SET-Plan, intended to enhance innovation and contribute to increase the competitiveness of the sector. This implementation plan builds on the idea of coupling innovation and commercial operation.

Source: Solar Thermal Electricity European Industrial Initiative Implementation Plan 2010-2013, May 2012

Solar energy – European photovoltaic industry initiative

Continuing the overview on the Industry Initiatives included in the European Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET-Plan), this post focuses on the use of solar energy through photovoltaic  technology for the production of electricity, and most particularly on the 2010-2012 implementation plan for the Solar Industry Initiative.

The implementation plan describes the immediate actions needed to achieve the goals set forward for 2020 in the European Commission's Photovoltaic Roadmap, namely the R&D steps required to enable rapid large-scale deployment of photovoltaics at minimum cost and maximum benefit for society.

The implementation plan identifies two major initiatives to enable the large-scale deployment of photovoltaics:

• Reducing photovoltaic electricity generation costs through technology progress, experience and economies of scale;
• Integrating photovoltaic electricity into the European Grid.

The R&D actions for Cost Reduction will focus on improving manufacturability, materials development, and enhancing performance. R&D will also be conducted to advance grid integration, large-scale grid integration analysis, and solar resources prediction and monitoring. The R&D actions will be followed by demonstration projects to enable the replication and large scale implementation of the results. These projects will include the large integration of PV in urban areas, grid integration of distributed photovoltaic power generation, and last scale demonstration of new concepts and technologies.

Besides the efforts of the photovoltaic sector, the success of the Solar Energy Industry Initiative will also depend on the Electricity Grid Initiative, as well as on the development of other technologies, such as electricity storage, electrical vehicles, demand side management and smart grids.

Although not included in the European Industrial Initiative, the need for an education and training program has been pointed as a requirement to avoid a shortage of qualified professionals, such as project engineers and installers, and to keep the leadership of the European industry. The importance of awareness and communication activities has also been recognized for the dissemination of the benefits of photovoltaics near the general public and important stakeholders, including policy-makers, utilities, architects, and the construction sector. 

Source: Solar Energy Industry Initiative 2010-2012 implementation plan.

Wind Energy Industrial Initiative for Europe

Dear Readers, I do appologize for this post's delay. I hope you will find it worthwhile.

Today's blog concerns the Wind European Industrial Initiative which integrates the European Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET-Plan), and more specifically its 2010 – 2012 Implementation Plan. The main actions included in the Wind energy implementation plan are:

a) New turbine designs, materials and components
This implementation vector includes the establishment of a network of 5 to 10 European testing facilities, and the development of a EU's cross-industrial cooperation and demonstration programme.

b) Offshore technology
This area of intervention includes the development and testing of new structures, the automation of substructures manufacturing, and know-how intake from the oil&gas sector through the promotion of technology transfer.

c) Grid integration
Grid connection, power transmission, and secure and stable system dynamics are also major focus areas. Balancing and market operation also have a dedicated sub-programme, and potentially missing grid activities may also be considered.

d) Resource Assessment, spatial planning and social acceptance
The assessment of the Wind resource and the development of spatial planning instruments are also worthy of specific programs. The final actions address Public acceptance analysis and overarching Key Performance Indicators.

Source: 
European Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET-Plan). Wind European Industrial Initiative, 2010 – 2012 Implementation Plan.

Bioenergy in the European Energy Technology Plan

Today’s post highlights the Industrial Bioenergy Initiative included in the European Union’s Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET-Plan) under the slogan “Boosting the contribution of Bioenergy to the EU climate and energy ambitions”.

The term Bioenergy is used to designate the production of heat, electricity and fuels from biological resources, including dedicated crops, agricultural and forestry residues, and municipal and industrial wastes.

“The SET-Plan Bioenergy Initiative focuses on innovative value chains which are not yet commercially available, and which could bring significant contribution to the bioenergy markets by large scale deployment (large single units or larger number of smaller units), whilst complying with the sustainability requirements of the Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC).” A specific complementary activity is also proposed to tackle the critical issue of biomass supply.

The Industrial Bioenergy Initiative will promote public-private partnerships to leverage financing and risk management of projects for the implementation of demonstration plants and of first commercial units of new value chains (flagship). The demonstration projects are expected to produce their first commercial contribution by 2015-2020.

Projects will be selected based on different criteria, including their innovative nature: at least one “technology brick” or the integration of “technology bricks” within the considered value chain should not have been deployed at demonstration or commercial scale before. The seven value chains listed below will be considered:

a) Thermochemical pathways

1: Synthetic liquid fuels and/or hydrocarbons and blending components through gasification.

2: Bio-methane and other bio-synthetic gaseous fuels through gasification.

3: High efficiency heat & power generation through thermochemical conversion

4: Intermediate bioenergy carriers through techniques such as pyrolysis and torrefaction

b) Biochemical pathways

5: Ethanol and higher alcohols from ligno-cellulosic feedstock through chemical and biological processes

6: Hydrocarbons through biological and/or chemical synthesis from biomass containing carbohydrates

7: Bioenergy carriers produced by micro-organisms (algae, bacteria) from CO2 and sunlight

c) Complementary measures and activities

8: Biomass feedstock for bioenergy

9: Set of activities on longer term R&D&D on emerging and innovative bioenergy value chains

Source: European Industrial Bioenergy Initiative, Implementation Plan 2010 – 2012, European Union, 2012.

European Energy Strategy

In 2010, the European Commission published the European Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET-Plan), with the explicit objective of make low-carbon technologies affordable and competitive.

This instrument focuses on strengthening industrial participation in energy research and demonstration as a way to boost innovation and accelerate deployment of low-carbon energy technologies. The collective European approach helps to better tackle barriers and share risks.

The SET-Plan includes initiatives in the following research areas:

• Bioenergy – development of biofuels that comply with the EU sustainability criteria (Directive 2009/28/EC of 23 April 2009 on promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources).
• CO2 Capture, Transport and Storage – technologies to be couple with power generation and other energy intensive industries that use fossil fuels, particularly coal and gas.
• European Electricity Grid – to further integrate national networks into a pan-European network and enable the transmission and distribution of electricity from dispersed and concentrated renewable sources (up to 35 % by 2020, and make electricity production completely decarbonised by 2050).
• Fuel Cells and Hydrogen (FCH) – development of hydrogen-supply and fuel-cell technologies for mass market introduction in 2015-2020.
• Sustainable Nuclear Initiative – intended to demonstrate the long-term sustainability of the 4^th generation nuclear reactors, based on closed fuel cycles.
• Energy Efficiency – The Smart Cities Initiative – This initiative will support regions and large cities that take pioneering measures in energy efficiency and energy production to progress towards a radical reduction of greenhouse gas emissions even further than established in the EU energy and climate change policy.
• Solar Europe Initiative – focuses on photovoltaics and concentrating solar power technologies to make them more competitive and to facilitate their integration into the electricity grid.
• European Wind Initiative – aims to make wind energy more competitive, to harness the potential of offshore resources and deep waters, and to facilitate grid integration.

Also noteworthy are the creation of the SET-plan Steering Group, with representatives from the EU Member States and where Norway, Switzerland, and Turkey participate as observers, and of the European Energy Research Alliance, founded by leading European research institutes.

Source: 

The European Strategic Energy Technology Plan (Set –Plan) Towards a low carbon future, European Comission, 2010

R&D, competitiveness and sustainability

Innovation is of paramount importance to increase energy-efficiency and to enable the cost-effective use of low carbon energy sources, ensuring their large-scale market penetration. In this context investing in research and development (R&D), demonstration and early deployment of technologies is vital for sustainable development, conditioning the ability of the World to limit the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the increase of the global average temperature.

It is interesting to note that several emerging economies are allocating significant shares of their GDP to research and development (R&D) of new technologies. In 2009, China allocated 48% of its GDP, India 35%, and Korea 26%. These investments have the potential to enable these developing countries to leapfrog towards a more competitive, energy-efficient, and “low carbon intensity” Economy.

In the European Union, the overall current investment in R&D represented 19% of GDP in 2009.

Full implementation of the Strategic Energy Technology (SET) plan requires an additional investment in R&D and demonstration of € 50 billion over the next 10 years.

The “Stern Review” recognizes the private sector as the major driver of innovation and of the diffusion of technologies around the world. Nevertheless it stresses the role that governments can play to promote international collaboration to overcome barriers in this area, namely through co-ordination of priorities, and shared risks and rewards.

According to the “Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050”, for the EU SET plan to completely fulfill its role on the identified pathway, on average, over the coming 40 years, an additional investment of around 1.5% of EU GDP per year on top of the overall current investment is needed.

Sources:

- "A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050", European Commission, 2011;

- Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change.

Where does the European Union stand on GHG emission reductions?

Years ago, the Member States of the European Union committed themselves to reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 20%, increasing the share of renewable energy to 20%, and increase the energy efficiency in 20% by 2020. According to the “Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050” (EU Commission, 2011), the EU is currently on track to meet the first two targets, although additional efforts are needed to achieve the energy efficiency target.

The European Union has been a champion pushing for more ambitious targets for the period after the Kyoto Protocol expires. In the UNFCCC conference in Durban, the EU voluntarily proposed to move from a 20% to a 30% reduction by 2020 compared to 1990 levels, provided that the other developed countries commit themselves to comparable emission reductions and developing countries contribute adequately according to their responsibilities and respective capabilities.

Previously, during contacts with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the European Commission had already reaffirmed its intention to reduce EU's greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990.

However, the EU represents little more than 10% of global emissions... it will not be able to tackle climate change on its own. Additionally, while setting an example, the EU is at the same time safeguarding its position. Committing alone would bring hardships to the Member States in the future, due to disloyal market competition and even from the displacement of large emitting companies to other regions of the Globe with less stringent climate protection frameworks.

I eagerly await for the next “episodes” of the negotiation of the emission reductions between Countries for the after-Kioto Protocol (the period beyond 2012), under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Protection (UNFCCC). 

 Sources:
- “A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050”, European Commission, 2011;
- UNFCCC, http://unfccc.int/.

To what GHG concentration in the atmosphere should we aim for? Does it matter?

The current concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is of 370 parts per million (ppm). Scientific models indicate that 450 ppm CO2e is the maximum tolerable concentration in order to prevent the rise of global temperatures from exceeding 2 degrees Celsius in comparison with pre-industrial levels. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), this is the limit to which we should aim for, in order to avoid disastrous consequences of climate change.

However, according to the Stern Review, the stocks of hydrocarbons that are profitable to extract, under current policies, are more than enough to increase the levels of greenhouse-gas (GHG) in the atmosphere well beyond 750ppm CO2e, with very dangerous consequences to the climate system, the society, and the economy.

Without strong coordinated international action to limit GHG emissions, the concentration in the atmosphere will easily exceed 450ppm CO2e, the scenario that gives a 50% chance of avoiding the worst effects of climate change.

Even the Stern Review analysis of the economics of climate change recommends aiming for stabilisation somewhere within the range 450 - 550ppm CO2e. Higher levels would substantially increase the risks of very harmful impacts, while reducing the costs of mitigation by comparatively little. On the other hand, the above mentioned review states that aiming to lower concentrations would impose very high mitigation costs in the short term with small gains, and might not even be feasible given the past delays of the international community in taking strong action against climate change.

Global coordinated action to prevent the world from going beyond the 450 ppm CO2e is needed urgently. It matters a great deal.

Sources:

UNFCCC, http://unfccc.int/

"STERN REVIEW: The Economics of Climate Change" available at http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http:/www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/sternreview_index.htm

Can we afford to reduce GHG emissions?

For today's post I will simply highlight some of the messages of a major reference in terms of the Economics of Climate Change: the Stern Review, an independent review commissioned by the UK's government.

1 - The scientific evidence points to increasing risks of serious, irreversible impacts from climate change associated with business-as-usual paths for emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG)

The annual emissions of GHG are increasing as the demand for energy increases around the world. A concentration of 550ppm CO2e in the atmosphere could be reached as early as 2035. At this level there is a 77% to 99% chance of a global average temperature rise exceeding 2°C. Under a business-as-usual scenario, the GHG in the atmosphere by the end of the century could give a 50% risk of exceeding a 5°C global average temperature change. Such changes would transform the physical and human geography of the world.

2 – Mitigation is a highly productive investment

A strong mitigation policy to reduce GHG emissions can be achieved at a far lower cost than those calculated for the impacts of climate change. Mitigation must be viewed as an investment, a cost incurred now and in the coming few decades to avoid the risks of very severe consequences in the future.

So, to answer the title question... we'd better!

Sources:  

"STERN REVIEW: The Economics of Climate Change" available at http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http:/www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/sternreview_index.htm

 

Who benefits with limited global action against climate change and just how far does the Kyoto Protocol go?

During the UNFCCC conference of parties in Durban, South Africa, nations came together to try to salvage the Kyoto Protocol beyond its first commitment period. Let us step back for a moment and question just how far the Kyoto Protocol goes, and see if saving it would be enough.

According to the IEA World Energy Outlook 2010 projections, the future fossil fuel prices will be significantly higher in a scenario of limited global action against climate change. So the answer to the first part of the title question is obvious: oil producing countries and corporations. Does the Kyoto Protocol reflect this reality? Clearly. 

Among the thirty largest oil producers (considering crude oil extraction and refinery products production), there are only six developed countries listed as Annex I parties to the Kyoto Protocol (Russia, USA, Canada, Norway, the United Kingdom, and Australia). Of those, the Kyoto Protocol only established GHG reduction targets beyond the 1990 emissions level to three: USA, Canada, and UK.

Now let us examine the energy consumption side. The top ten energy consumers are China, USA, India, Russia, Japan, Germany, Brazil, France, Canada, and South Korea (Global Energy Stastistical Yearbook 2011, Enerdata). Developing countries are not subject to the legally binding restrictions under the Kyoto Protocol (China, India, Brazil, and South Korea). Russia, undergoing the transition process to a market economy, does not have to reduce emissions beyond 1990 levels, sufficing to maintain them. Of these large energy consumers, and hence large GHG emiters, the Kyoto Protocol only established reduction targets beyond the 1990 emissions level to five: USA, Japan, Germany, France, and Canada. As is common knowledge, the USA never ratifyed the protocol, and Canada officially “droped out” in Durban. 

So to summarize, currently only three (Japan, Germany, and France) of the ten largest energy consumers, and only one (UK) of the thirty largest oil producers are legally bound to reduce their GHG emissions beyong 1990 levels under the Kyoto Protocol... We do need to go beyond the Kyoto Protocol. 

Nevertheless, this post ends with a positive keynote. During the UNFCCC conference of parties in Durban, South Africa, large emerging economic powers such as China, India and Brazil agreeded, for the first time in history, to set legally binding constraints to their greenhouse gases emissions (GHG). This is perhaps the recognition that the old development model reliant on cheap fuel consumption is no longer viable, for both economic, social and environmental reasons. Developing countries already share the vision of a low-carbon future, built on renewable energies and energy efficiency.

Sources:

- IEA World Energy Outlook 2010;

- A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050, European Commission, 2011;

- Global Energy Stastistical Yearbook 2011, Enerdata;

- Kyoto Protocol (available at UNFCCC's website); 
- Financial Times, December 15, 2011;
- http://en.wikipedia.org/ (oil producing countries' data).