Where does the European Union stand on GHG emission reductions?

Years ago, the Member States of the European Union committed themselves to reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 20%, increasing the share of renewable energy to 20%, and increase the energy efficiency in 20% by 2020. According to the “Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050” (EU Commission, 2011), the EU is currently on track to meet the first two targets, although additional efforts are needed to achieve the energy efficiency target.

The European Union has been a champion pushing for more ambitious targets for the period after the Kyoto Protocol expires. In the UNFCCC conference in Durban, the EU voluntarily proposed to move from a 20% to a 30% reduction by 2020 compared to 1990 levels, provided that the other developed countries commit themselves to comparable emission reductions and developing countries contribute adequately according to their responsibilities and respective capabilities.

Previously, during contacts with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the European Commission had already reaffirmed its intention to reduce EU's greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990.

However, the EU represents little more than 10% of global emissions... it will not be able to tackle climate change on its own. Additionally, while setting an example, the EU is at the same time safeguarding its position. Committing alone would bring hardships to the Member States in the future, due to disloyal market competition and even from the displacement of large emitting companies to other regions of the Globe with less stringent climate protection frameworks.

I eagerly await for the next “episodes” of the negotiation of the emission reductions between Countries for the after-Kioto Protocol (the period beyond 2012), under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Protection (UNFCCC). 

 Sources:
- “A Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050”, European Commission, 2011;
- UNFCCC, http://unfccc.int/.

To what GHG concentration in the atmosphere should we aim for? Does it matter?

The current concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is of 370 parts per million (ppm). Scientific models indicate that 450 ppm CO2e is the maximum tolerable concentration in order to prevent the rise of global temperatures from exceeding 2 degrees Celsius in comparison with pre-industrial levels. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), this is the limit to which we should aim for, in order to avoid disastrous consequences of climate change.

However, according to the Stern Review, the stocks of hydrocarbons that are profitable to extract, under current policies, are more than enough to increase the levels of greenhouse-gas (GHG) in the atmosphere well beyond 750ppm CO2e, with very dangerous consequences to the climate system, the society, and the economy.

Without strong coordinated international action to limit GHG emissions, the concentration in the atmosphere will easily exceed 450ppm CO2e, the scenario that gives a 50% chance of avoiding the worst effects of climate change.

Even the Stern Review analysis of the economics of climate change recommends aiming for stabilisation somewhere within the range 450 - 550ppm CO2e. Higher levels would substantially increase the risks of very harmful impacts, while reducing the costs of mitigation by comparatively little. On the other hand, the above mentioned review states that aiming to lower concentrations would impose very high mitigation costs in the short term with small gains, and might not even be feasible given the past delays of the international community in taking strong action against climate change.

Global coordinated action to prevent the world from going beyond the 450 ppm CO2e is needed urgently. It matters a great deal.

Sources:

UNFCCC, http://unfccc.int/

"STERN REVIEW: The Economics of Climate Change" available at http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http:/www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/sternreview_index.htm